Not financial advice. Education only.
This post is for educational purposes. I'm sharing how I personally think and invest, not telling you what to buy, sell, or hold. It isn't tailored to your situation, and your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance are different from mine.
Prices are as of the October 9, 2026 close, from Yahoo Finance and the other sources linked below. Markets move fast, so verify current numbers yourself.
Quick answer
- QQQ closed at $751.27, about 1.1% below its record close of $759.66 (October 6, 2026).
- Since 1999, QQQ has fallen 10% or more 19 times, roughly once every 1.5 years. A 10–20% pullback is normal, not rare.
- I still like AI as a long-term theme, but I'd rather buy in bulk at better entry points than at record highs.
- If I were starting from scratch, Netflix (NFLX) would be my top pick, capped at 5% of my portfolio.
The Nasdaq-100 just hit a record, and QQQ, the ETF that tracks it, is within about 1% of its all-time high. When everything feels good, I think the biggest mistake is not preparing for the opposite. Here is the data on how often 10–20% corrections happen in QQQ, how I'm preparing, and the one stock I'd start with if I were building a portfolio from zero.
Is QQQ at an All-Time High Right Now?
Yes, or very close. QQQ's record close was $759.66 on October 6. On October 9 it closed at $751.27, about 1.1% under that level. The recent push higher came as a soft jobs report cooled bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike (Benzinga), which is a reminder that the rally is leaning on rate expectations as much as on earnings.
Notice the left side of that chart. In late July the Nasdaq-100 was in correction territory, a little over 11% below its early-June high, after a chip and memory-stock sell-off (NBC News). It fully recovered in weeks. That is exactly what a 10% pullback looks like: scary while it's happening, and sometimes erased quickly.
How Often Does QQQ Fall 10% or More?
Since 1999, QQQ has had 19 declines of 10% or more from a peak, roughly one every 1.5 years. I calculated this from QQQ's daily closing prices (price only, before dividends):
| Measure (March 1999 – October 2026) | Result |
|---|---|
| Declines of 10% or more (peak to trough) | 19 |
| Of those, between 10% and 20% | 14 |
| Of those, deeper than 20% | 5 |
| Calendar years (2000–2025) with at least one 10% dip | 23 of 26 |
| Median worst dip within a year | about -14% |
The recent ones, since 2020, look like this:
Two things stand out to me. First, 10–20% pullbacks are routine; QQQ had two of them in the last year alone. Second, the tail is real: the decline that began in March 2000 reached about -83% and took until 2016 to fully recover. I'm not predicting that. I'm saying the range of outcomes is wide, and a 10–20% correction is the mild version.
Why I'm Being Cautious Without Giving Up on AI
I still think AI is a good long-term bet. I wrote about the data behind that, including how much the biggest companies are spending, in AI stocks, diversification and building conviction. A good long-term theme and a good price today are two different questions, though.
Concentration is part of why I'm careful. Morningstar shows QQQ's top 10 holdings at about 47% of the fund, with NVIDIA alone near 8.5% (Morningstar). So a pullback in a handful of AI-linked names can pull the whole fund down, and the same names often show up in my other holdings too. The honest cost of my approach is that if QQQ keeps climbing, the cash I'm holding back misses that run.
How Am I Preparing for a 10–20% Correction?
- Know my real exposure. I add up how much of my portfolio is effectively the same AI and mega-cap trade, not just how many tickers I own.
- Keep cash ready. Dry powder only helps if it's there when prices drop, so I don't deploy everything into highs.
- Decide levels in advance. I'd rather set my buy points while calm than invent them during a sell-off.
- No leverage. Borrowed money turns a correction into forced selling.
- Size positions so a 50% drop is survivable. More on that below.
Here is what "decide levels in advance" looks like as simple math, using QQQ's record close of $759.66. This is an illustration of how I think, not a forecast. The market may never reach these levels:
| Decline from record | QQQ level (approx.) | Example plan for my cash reserve |
|---|---|---|
| -10% | $683.69 | Deploy about a third |
| -15% | $645.71 | Deploy another third |
| -20% | $607.73 | Deploy the rest |
If waiting for a dip isn't for you, that's a fair choice. Investing a fixed amount on a schedule avoids timing entirely; the DCA calculator shows how that plays out over time. I just lean toward larger buys at better prices.
Why Is Netflix (NFLX) My Top Pick if I Were Starting Over?
When the index is at a record, I look for what has already been marked down. If I were a new buyer building from zero, my top pick would be Netflix, capped at 5% of my portfolio. Here is why, with the numbers as of October 9:
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | $70.30 (about 42% lower than a year ago) |
| Trailing / forward P/E | ~22.2 / ~20.3 |
| PEG ratio | ~0.96 |
| Free cash flow (trailing 12 months) | ~$11.2B |
| Analyst average target | ~$92.55 (51 analysts, consensus Buy) |
Source: StockAnalysis. Price targets are a snapshot, not a promise.
A forward P/E near 20 for a company still growing revenue in the low double digits, with large free cash flow, looks reasonable to me. In other words, a lot of the "correction" I'd want to buy has already happened in this one stock, while QQQ is still near its peak. I walked through the full valuation scorecard in my Netflix price and valuation post, and you can use the same method on any stock with the valuation scorecard guide.
What could make me wrong about Netflix
- Engagement. Reports point to Netflix's share of US TV viewing slipping as YouTube gains. If that's structural, a lower multiple may be deserved.
- A flattered earnings base. Netflix received a one-time $2.8 billion termination fee when it walked away from the Warner Bros. Discovery deal, so normalized earnings multiples would be higher than they look.
- A bigger rival. Paramount just closed its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, creating a larger competitor (Inquirer).
- Earnings on October 20. Netflix reports Q3 results that day, and it has guided to roughly $12.86 billion of revenue. Stocks can move sharply on results, so I'd think carefully about how I stage any purchase around it.
How Much of My Portfolio Do I Put in One Stock?
I never let any single stock or asset be more than 10% of my portfolio. Within that ceiling, the cap depends on the risk:
| Tier | My cap | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Hard ceiling, any stock or asset | 10% | Applies to everything, including Bitcoin |
| Top pick: cheaper multiple, large cash flow | up to 5% | Netflix (NFLX) |
| Higher-risk, richly valued | 3–4% | Axon (AXON) |
That is why Netflix gets more room than AXON: a forward P/E near 20 and about $11 billion of free cash flow is a different risk profile from a forward P/E near 46. At a 5% weight, even a further 50% drop in Netflix would cost my whole portfolio about 2.5%. That's a loss I can live with, and it's what lets me hold a view without panicking.
What I'm Taking From This
- Records are not a reason to sell everything, and they're not a reason to buy everything. They're a reason to know my plan.
- A 10–20% correction is normal for QQQ, so I'd rather prepare than be surprised.
- I look for value that has already been marked down while the index is stretched.
- Position size decides how much any mistake can hurt.
Disclosure: not financial advice
This article is for educational purposes only. It reflects my own views and habits and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold QQQ, Netflix, or any security or asset. I may hold or trade the securities mentioned. Data comes from third-party sources and may be incomplete or delayed. Investments can lose value, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor.
FAQ
Is this financial advice?
No. It's education and my own perspective, and it says nothing about what's right for your portfolio.
How often does QQQ fall 10% or more?
Since 1999, QQQ has had 19 peak-to-trough declines of 10% or more, about one every 1.5 years: 14 between 10% and 20%, and 5 deeper than 20%. In 23 of the 26 full calendar years from 2000 to 2025 it had at least one 10% dip, with a median worst dip of about 14%.
Is QQQ at an all-time high?
QQQ's record close was $759.66 on October 6, 2026. It closed at $751.27 on October 9, about 1.1% below that record.
Should I wait for a correction before buying QQQ?
Waiting is a timing bet and it can cost you gains if prices keep rising. I personally prefer to buy larger amounts at better entry points rather than at record highs, but investing on a schedule is a reasonable alternative if you don't want to time anything.
How do I prepare for a stock market correction?
Know how concentrated your portfolio is, keep some cash available, decide in advance what you'll do at -10%, -15%, and -20%, avoid leverage, and size positions so a 50% drop in any single holding is survivable.
How much of a portfolio should one stock like Netflix be?
There's no universal answer. I never let any single stock or asset exceed 10% of my portfolio, and I cap even my top pick, Netflix, at 5%. Riskier, richly valued stocks get smaller caps, around 3–4%.